Tokens too cheap to meter(jyn.dev)
346 points by teoruiz 20 days ago | 225 comments
tl;dr: LLM inference costs are dropping ~2.5 orders of magnitude per year, driven by GPU efficiency gains (~2x/2yr), better inference engines (vLLM, MLPerf), MoE architectures, Mamba hybrids that slash local RAM needs, and specialized classifiers like Jev/Laya that are 100x cheaper still. The author predicts LLMs embedded as infrastructure within 1-2 years, frontier-quality models running locally in 3-6 years, and tokens becoming cheaper than tool calls like `grep`—shifting software's value from code to product design, ops, and security.
HN Discussion:
  • ↓Extrapolation of cost declines won't continue forever; Stein's Law applies
  • ↓Historical parallels (nuclear 'too cheap to meter', atomic bomb) suggest such optimistic predictions rarely pan out
  • ↓Article's data and charts are weak or misinterpreted, undermining the cost-decline thesis
  • ~Article is insightful but glosses over business model viability and hardware/memory constraints
  • ↑Better, more rigorous analyses exist that support rapid cost declines with more defensible methodology