Evidence of Fraud in an Influential Study About Procrastination(datacolada.org)
347 points by Anon84 9 days ago | 259 comments
tl;dr: Data Colada analyzed the original data files from Ariely and Wertenbroch's influential 2002 procrastination study (2,100+ citations) after a failed replication, and found strong evidence of fabrication: implausibly large effect sizes (d=2.5), duplicate observations paired across conditions, missing correlations between variables that should be highly related, and self-reported minutes lacking the human tendency to round. Both original authors have now asked Psychological Science to retract the paper; Ariely claims insufficient memory and records to explain the anomalies.
HN Discussion:
  • Peer review is inadequate and science's self-correction mechanism is too slow
  • Ariely has a long pattern of fraud and Duke should sever ties with him
  • Replication should be incentivized or required before papers are cited
  • LLMs could help identify fraudulent research anomalies faster in the future
  • Statistical red flags like large effect sizes are useful indicators laypeople can spot