2x, not 10x: coding with LLMs in 2026(obryant.dev)
265 points by tnisonoff 5 days ago | 211 comments
tl;dr: LLMs hit a productivity sweet spot in 2026 because they became reliable enough to run in automated feedback loops with objectively verifiable criteria (like "make a button that does X"), yielding roughly a 2x boost. However, they still struggle with subjective judgments like code maintainability and documentation quality, so the author uses them for rough drafts and explicitly tells them not to write comments or READMEs. Further model improvements likely won't deliver 10x—that will require the industry to retool workflows around current capabilities, not smarter models.
HN Discussion:
  • LLMs enable projects that wouldn't otherwise be built, making productivity gains far exceed 2x
  • Reviewing LLM-generated code takes longer than writing it manually, limiting productivity gains
  • ~Productivity gains depend heavily on context—team size, autonomy, and confidence level determine multiplier
  • Non-programmers or those automating simple tasks see massive gains (100x) from LLMs
  • Fully embracing agentic workflows and ceding code control yields transformative productivity