tl;dr: Seasonal forecast models across 14 systems and 667 ensemble members are converging on a 2026-27 El Niño peak of ~3.6°C in the Niño 3.4 region — roughly 0.8°C above the 2015-16 record, with ~91% of members exceeding that prior high. Daily SSTs are already ~2°C above era-adjusted averages in mid-July, far outpacing 1997 and 2015 at this stage, though the author cautions that models have never been verified against an event this extreme. Most warming impact would hit 2027, likely making it the warmest year on record.