tl;dr: Two new open-weight frontier models—Moonshot's Kimi K3 and Alibaba's Qwen 3.8—are reportedly approaching Anthropic's top model in performance, signaling that SOTA capabilities are now achievable with open models. The piece argues this puts model-only vendors without data center or power infrastructure (Anthropic, Moonshot, DeepSeek) at structural risk, since their costs scale with revenue and they lack product moats. Anthropic looks especially exposed: its models are ~3× more expensive per task than competitors, its harness products face low-barrier competition, and unlike OpenAI it hasn't diversified into infrastructure or consumer products.